Black Friday’s performance is now in focus as the market prepares for the rather busy weeks ahead, with its peak reaching the Holiday season. In this report we will detail the current findings just after the much anticipated sales event that took place during the previous Friday. We aim to identify important trends and consumer preferences that could help us with what to expect in the near future.

At the moment, the media has already uncovered valuable information on how consumers dealt with Black Friday in the US. The event is in our opinion considered a success, as numbers seem to confirm. On the contrary, by observing some videos on social media networks that US shoppers posted on the day, mixed signals are received. Some shoppers did have to wait for a considerable amount of hours outside shops just like the traditional anticipation before the opening and did get to offers that saved them some money. The waiting and the number of shoppers in no way have reached pre pandemic levels according to reports. Also, others in different states found products with special deals to be limited but shelves were unexpectedly stacked.

Yet, according to the WSJ, sales rose 29.8% compared with the same period last year, while physical purchases with consumers attending shops rose to 42.9%, according to Mastercard Spending Pulse. This is an indication that people this year did not remain at home but rather selected to attend shopping venues. This can be due to the ongoing vaccination process that is considered by specialists as the one and only way out of the pandemic which may have provided some safety among shoppers. Furthermore, possibly the first half on 2021 was rather challenging for consumers as they stayed home but at the same time may have increased their saving accounts substantially, making them more willing to spend. This could be a positive situation for some consumers and their household balance sheets, but was certainly not for the global economy that saw inflation surging to multiyear high levels. In this case some consumers where disappointed not being able to get the very attractive deals they got in past years. Some stores did manage to offer some deals that made the trick, but in our view not even close to what took place prior to the pandemic. The increase of in store sales though, could be a sign that some consumers are willing to shop at the normal price levels with very little discount. This could also be the result of the scarcity of certain products.

Demand for products has increased substantially in the past months, but troubles arising from Covid-19 related manufacturing stoppages and transportation limitations, have kept supply on the back foot. The supply chain issues that have been troubling the global markets were in the epicenter of attention in the previous days, turning out to be a very valid concern for some products. The supply chain matter may be even lifting sales at the moment as the uncertainty surrounding the issue is expected to hold its ground well into the next year as was forecasted by many central banks around the world. If inflation is to continue to rise, then consumers may be better off buying at the moment with little or even no discount, instead of buying goods in one month when there is no guarantee what goods will be available and at what prices. This can also be seen as a trend that started earlier in October. The US Retail Sales figure for the month impressed analysts and traders when a jump from previous 0.8% to 1.7% was observed. Moreover, according to the Financial Times almost 59 per cent of US consumers started shopping earlier than in 2020. The paradox however, was that online sales on Black Friday were slightly lower than the year before. According to many sources Online Black Friday sales fell to $8.9 billion from $9 billion last year. Of course the increase in physical sales seems to compensate for the reduced online sales figure which may as well rise in the following weeks due to the ongoing pandemic troubles.

On a separate note, the Eurozone’s retail sector may have made questionable sales during Black Friday. The new surge in cases may be keeping consumers back from attending shops at the moment while online sales may have increased. A report by Reuters implies retail sales in Germany were on the low in November ahead of the critical Christmas season. Is this the opposite of what took place in the US? It remains to be seen. Yet the overall stance the ECB is keeping at the moment has sent the EUR plunging for the time being.

Then again to form a complete view analysts and market participants may have to wait for Cyber Monday to be complete. Cyber Monday is the event that follows Black Friday and Thanksgiving. What makes Cyber Monday special is that it is used to get the consumption pulse regarding e-retailers and producers. Some consumers see it as a second chance to buy items that may have been sold out during Black Friday. Anything sold online with a small discount can be considered a benefit both for the consumer and retailer possibly making the event a great success.